What Percentage Makes a Greek Land-for-Development Deal Truly Viable?

(An Investor’s Perspective with Real Numbers) Most discussions around Greek “antiparochi” (land-for-apartments development) focus on the landowner. But foreign investors ask a different question: If I invest in a development project structured as an antiparochi, is the deal financially sustainable? Because if the project margin is too thin: quality suffers delays increase cash flow tightens and downside risk grows Let’s examine a realistic example.

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT

Christos Boubalos - poli.gr

2/13/2026

Example Scenario

Land: 750 sqm
Building coefficient (FAR): 0.8
Buildable area: 600 sqm

Construction cost: €2,300 / sqm
Estimated selling price: €4,000 / sqm

Total Construction Cost

600 × €2,300 = €1,380,000

(Excluding marketing, financing, and taxes for simplicity.)

Total Potential Sales Revenue

600 × €4,000 = €2,400,000

Gross Development Margin (Before Other Costs)

€2,400,000 – €1,380,000 = €1,020,000

This is not pure profit.

From this amount, we must still deduct:

  • marketing & brokerage

  • financing costs

  • legal & permitting

  • developer overhead

  • corporate taxes

  • contingency buffer

A healthy residential project typically requires:

  • 15–20% net margin on total revenue
    or

  • 20–25% margin on construction cost

Anything below that becomes structurally risky.

Now Let’s Test Different Antiparochi Percentages

In an antiparochi structure, the landowner receives a percentage of the built area instead of cash.

The higher that percentage, the smaller the developer’s retained sellable area — and therefore margin.

Scenario A – 25% Land Share

Landowner receives:

600 × 25% = 150 sqm
Value: 150 × €4,000 = €600,000

Developer retains:

450 sqm × €4,000 = €1,800,000

Margin before other costs:

€1,800,000 – €1,380,000 = €420,000

≈ 17.5% of revenue

✔ Healthy structure
✔ Comfortable margin
✔ Absorbs moderate market fluctuations

For an investor, this is structurally stable.

Scenario B – 30% Land Share

Landowner receives:

600 × 30% = 180 sqm
Value: €720,000

Developer retains:

420 sqm × €4,000 = €1,680,000

Margin:

€1,680,000 – €1,380,000 = €300,000

≈ 12.5% margin

⚠ Tight
⚠ Requires strong market conditions
⚠ Limited downside protection

Still feasible — but more exposed.

Scenario C – 35% Land Share

Landowner receives:

600 × 35% = 210 sqm
Value: €840,000

Developer retains:

390 sqm × €4,000 = €1,560,000

Margin:

€1,560,000 – €1,380,000 = €180,000

≈ 7.5% margin

✖ Structurally risky
✖ Highly sensitive to delays or price drops
✖ May push cost-cutting in construction

From an investor standpoint, this is thin.

The Hidden Risk: Market Softening

If selling prices drop from €4,000 to €3,700 per sqm:

Total revenue becomes:

600 × €3,700 = €2,220,000

Margins compress dramatically.

In the 35% structure, the project may barely break even — or worse.

Thin structures collapse first.

So What Is a Sustainable Range?

Under these assumptions:

✔ 28%–32% land share is generally realistic
✔ 25% is conservative and stable
✔ 35% requires exceptional pricing or lower construction cost

Anything above that shifts disproportionate risk to the developer — and therefore to equity investors.

Why This Matters to Foreign Investors

When investing in Greek development projects, you are not just analyzing price per sqm.

You are analyzing:

  • structural margin

  • downside protection

  • construction quality risk

  • time exposure

  • exit liquidity

As explained in
What ‘Safe’ Really Means in Real Estate Investment,
risk is not about volatility — it is about structural weakness.

A project with insufficient margin is structurally weak.

The Role of Poli Real Estate

At Poli Real Estate, development projects are evaluated through:

  • cost validation

  • sales price verification

  • margin stress-testing

  • land share sustainability analysis

  • exit liquidity scenarios

Because in land-for-development structures,
margin is not greed — it is safety.

Conclusion

The “best” antiparochi percentage is not the highest one.

It is the one that:

  • protects construction quality

  • survives market shifts

  • ensures realistic developer margin

  • protects investor capital

In development, sustainability is more important than headline numbers.

Interested in investing in a Greek development project?

Request a project viability analysis and structured development review.